Thursday, March 28, 2024

BC Liberals and BC NDP “statistically tied” in voter popularity (POLL)

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After a year and change since the last provincial election, the governing BC NDP and opposing BC Liberal Party are in a dead heat with regards to their popularity among voters in British Columbia.

According to Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll—a conglomeration of ten provincial polls—only 0.7% separates John Horgan’s NDP and Andrew Wilkinson’s Liberal parties among decided and leaning voters.

Quito Maggi, Mainstreet Research president and CEO, said the poll “might be the narrowest gap between two parties that we have ever reported.”

When asked who they would vote for if an election were held today, 33.9% of decided and leaning votes said they would vote Liberal. 33.2% would vote NDP, and 16% said they would vote for the BC Green Party, led by Andrew Weaver.

“Besides how close the two parties are, what is interesting about these numbers is that the BC Liberals take the lead over the NDP thanks to those who are currently undecided but are leaning towards voting Liberal if an election were held today,” said Maggi. “This means that NDP vote is firmer than the Liberals, but the Liberals have a wider base to build from.”

Geographically, the Liberals maintain a slight lead in the Greater Vancouver area and a more substantial lead in the interior of B.C.

On Vancouver Island, however, the BC NDP hold a 13 point lead over the Liberals.

The poll also asked respondents’ favourability ratings for all four party leaders. (The fourth party, the BC Conservatives, are led by Scott Anderson.)

Wilkinson had the best highest rating with -4.2% net favourability, followed by Anderson at -5.3%, Weaver with -6.7%, and then Horgan with -9.5%. 

“It is unusual that Horgan, Wilkinson, and Weaver have net negative favourability ratings, but it is even more unusual that over 30% of British Columbians either are not sure or are not familiar with all of these leaders, especially with a sitting premier,” Maggi said.

“British Columbians are either not paying attention to provincial politics these days or they are not being inspired to support any of these parties at this stage.”

The poll was conducted between July 15 and 17, 2018, and sampled 933 voting age British Columbians using automated telephone interviews.

Read the full findings of the poll here.

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Myles Sauer
Former staff editor and writer at Victoria Buzz.

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