John Horgan Lacrosse
(BC NDP Flickr)

With general voting day tomorrow, advanced voting closed and vote-by-mail packages mostly sent back, the NDP seems poised to cruise to a majority government.

According to the latest, and likely final, poll of the election, the NDP is projected to take home as much as 51 per cent of the popular vote.

Polls from Leger and Ipsos Reid show John Horgan’s party holding a commanding, double-digit lead over their closest rivals, the BC Liberal party.

Leger’s stats put that lead at 47 per cent for the NDP, and 36 per cent for the Liberals, while the BC Green Party rounds out the field with 14 per cent.

The margin of victory is even more pronounced in the Ipsos Reid poll, which shows the NDP at 51 per cent, the Liberals at 34 per cent, and the Greens at 13 per cent.

Shifts in the polls have been slight at best, with the NDP maintaining a consistent lead throughout the election.

Vote intentions are not significantly different from polls that were conducted prior to the snap election announcement, either.

The only significant shift to emerge in the election is the apparent rise in Green Leader Sonia Furstenau’s personal profile, who entered the election as the ‘Best Premier’ of choice for only 7 per cent of voters.

Ipsos Reid’s latest poll says Furstenau has doubled in popularity since then, with 14 per cent of respondents saying they would prefer Furstenau in the premier’s seat.

In a majority government, however, Furstenau would wield significantly less influence over the legislative agenda.

With her party’s support failing to rise with Furstenau’s personal support, the Green Party may struggle to maintain a meaningful presence in the next government.

Similarly, while the BC Liberal Party had been in striking distance of attaining popular support in February of this year, voter support has clearly coalesced around the NDP during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Leader Andrew Wilkinson’s personal star also seems in danger. Only 17 per cent of voters would prefer the Liberal Leader as premier, a scant 3 points ahead of Furstenau.

All this could change, however, if the voters’ mood is radically different from what has been predicted to date.

Initial results for the election will begin rolling in shortly after polls close at 8 p.m. tomorrow, but with one-third of votes coming in by mail, final results will take weeks to arrive.

Ipsos Reid polled 1,502 British Columbians between October 19 to 22, 2020. The overall poll is accurate to within +/ – 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. Some of the questions were asked only of online respondents. The result for these questions is accurate to within +/ – 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled.

Leger polled 1,100 British Columbian residents, 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in British Columbia, randomly recruited from either LEO’s online panel or telephone interviewing, from October 18th to October 21th , 2020.For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 1,100 respondents would have a margin of error of ± 3.0%, 19 times out of 20.

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