The provincial government has released updated modelling data that shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected various demographics in B.C. from January 1 to April 30.
Of note, dynamic modelling shows that the province could have no new cases of the virus by July 2020 if everyone keeps interactions at 35 per cent of how we would normally operate.
Based on the information provided, the highest number of cases in the province were recorded in women aged 50 – 59 years.
However the most serious COVID-19 cases were detected in men aged 70 – 90 years and older, as the majority of those groups were hospitalized after testing positive for the virus.
Out of a total 2,145 cases, health care workers accounted for 428 — or 21 per cent — of people diagnosed with COVID-19.
This can be greatly attributed to focused testing of workers in the health care sector for a period of time, until testing was reopened to anyone in the community displaying symptoms of the virus.
Men, people aged over 50 years old, and those who have a pre-existing chronic condition are groups that have been identified for being more at risk.
This graph shows the number of people in these groups have been hospitalized, admitted to ICU, or died after being diagnosed with COVID-19:
In the four-month time period studied for this model, there had been a total of 199 people admitted to critical care units as a result of contracting novel coronavirus.
Out of these, 28 (or 14.1 per cent) people recovered, 110 (or 55.2 per cent) have died, while the rest remain in critical care.
A comparison of the pandemic in B.C. with the rest of Canada and other countries shows that both the case rate and death rate in the province have flattened.
Moving forward
Looking to the future, a series of models show what would happen to the case numbers in B.C. depending on how people across the province change their levels of interaction.
Lifting restrictions entirely would cause an exponential surge in cases, and even increasing interactions up to 80 per cent of pre-pandemic levels would create a uptick in cases.
However, models show that keeping restrictions at 35 per cent of normal could lead to zero new cases by July.
As shown by the graph below, there is a major gap between restarting public life to 80 per cent of normal and 60 per cent.
During her briefing, Dr. Henry indicated that there will be a controlled, measured, and safe way of lifting some of the restrictions currently in place, suggesting that restrictions could be eased up to 60 per cent of pre-pandemic levels.
“This is, I believe, the end of our beginning of this pandemic… as we start this new phase we need to keep those principles in mind,” said Dr. Henry, referring to a list of principles British Columbians need to continue to follow.
Those include practicing good hygiene, staying at home if ill, maintaining physical distances outside your household, wearing non-medical masks in public places, and reducing non-essential travel whenever possible.
Premier John Horgan, Dr. Bonnie Henry, and Health Minister Adrian Dix are expected to make an announcement regarding the structure of some economic reopening plans on Wednesday.
See all the latest updates about the global COVID-19 pandemic on Vancouver Island
The BCCDC has set up a 2019 novel coronavirus telephone information line at 1-833-784-4397 for those who have further questions about this disease.
Anyone concerned that they may have been exposed to, or are experiencing symptoms of the novel coronavirus, should contact their primary care provider, local public health office, or call 8-1-1.
The Province has also created the 1-888-COVID-19 line to connect British Columbians needing non-medical information about the coronavirus pandemic.
As of the time of publication, the total number of COVID-19 patients worldwide has risen to 3,633,932.
Over 251,400 people have died from the illness and 1,185,390 have made a full recovery.
