Anyone holding out hope for a white Christmas in Victoria is in for some disappointing news.
According to Environment Canada Regional Meteorologist, Armel Castellan, the chances for a snowy December 25 are slim to none this year.
“We anticipate that kind of question this time of year,” said Castellan in a phone interview with Victoria Buzz.
“In the week leading up to Christmas… temperatures should drop off with overnight lows getting closer to zero, but it probably won’t be met with precipitation so the chances of seeing a white Christmas are essentially next to zero.”
The news may not come as a surprise to many, as chances of a white Christmas in Victoria are always rare.
Environment Canada statistics show that chances of snowfall on Christmas day between 1994 and 2017 are at 15 per cent. However between 1965 and 1984, they were at 5 per cent.
Between 1955 and 2007, there have only been six occasions in which Victoria has received snowfall on December 25.
“We probably aren’t in any kind of shape to see a snow event this year because we’re dealing with temperatures that aren’t being affected by an Arctic outflow, and that’s really how we get the ingredients for low level sea level snow,” said Castellan.
Even without snow, Victorians can expect some colder weather and Jack Frost nipping at their noses in the week leading up to Christmas starting Sunday, December 20.
Tuesday morning onwards, forecasts predict clear skies free from clouds, which means we may at least see some frost dusting the city on Christmas morning.
Although the first month of meteorological winter—December—has been a warm one, Castellan says the expectation is for things to cool down come January.
“The seasonal models give an indication that we will see a cooler January and February, and in fact, they’re looking at March and April also being potentially cooler,” he said.
“Mother Nature has all she needs right now to deliver us a cooler winter. And that comes with ratio of snow to rain being slightly in the favour of snow when we look at different places in B.C.”