The NDP has gained a burst of support in British Columbia partially thanks to the popularity of leader Jagmeet Singh.
According to the latest Angus Reid report, the week leading up to Canada’s 43rd federal elections is expected to be a nail-biter as neither the incumbent Liberals nor the Conservative Party have made considerable strides in the polls.
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With the CPC losing momentum, they now have a prospective 33% of the vote while the Liberals are stuck at a consistent 29%.
Meanwhile, the New Democrats have tied with the Liberals for second place in British Columbia, with both parties drawing support from 26% of voters each.
If it holds, this trend will cost the Liberals their ‘West Coast bonus’ earned in 2015, placing the possibility of a Liberal majority government firmly out of reach.
The NDP’s recent success in BC is partly attributed to the spur in nationwide popularity of leader Jagmeet Singh.
He is the only candidate to poll favourably across Canada with every age and gender group, while Trudeau has at least a -22 score with each group and Scheer only scores positively with men over age 55.
Top issues
Throughout the 2019 federal election campaign, climate change has been the primary issue on the minds of most Canadian voters.
However for those who lean towards supporting the Conservatives, fiscal issues including personal taxation and the federal deficit take precedence.
Other topics of significance to citizens include improving health care access, transparency from their government, access to affordable housing, immigration policy, and improving living conditions for First Nations.
With advance voting now complete and just days left until October 21st, Canada could realistically be headed towards forming a historic minority government.
In a statement to press over the weekend, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh expressed his support for forming a minority government with Trudeau’s Liberals, should the Conservatives win the most seats but fail to secure a majority.
He has since dialled back, stating that his priority is to focus on his own party’s performance. Meanwhile Trudeau has refused to state whether or not he’d be open to forming a coalition government with the NDP.
Opposition leader Andrew Scheer, on the other hand, has stated that his aim is to prevent a minority Liberal-NDP government by making sure the Conservatives secure a majority of seats in the House of Commons.
Voter turnout
Analysts at Angus Reid Institute predict that this election will largely be determined by voter turnout and, based on historical trends, some groups are more likely than others to cast their ballots.
According to Elections Canada statistics, voter turnout in 2015 gradually increased with age, from 57.1% for ages 18 – 24 to 78.8% for ages 65–74, and then declined to 67.4% for those 75 and over. This same general pattern has also been observed in prior elections.
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Conservative Party support is strong with voters aged over 55, who have historically been the largest group to show up at the voting booths.
Citizens voting for Liberals or the NDP tend to be younger, and increased voter participation among people aged 18 – 24 years old is what drove much of the Liberals’ success in 2015.
There is currently no indication of whether this rise in young voters will continue this time around.
